July 29th, 2021

Let's talk about ABC. How many Cybertrucks will this make? I think at least 4. And probably only 4.

I expect B & C each contains 2 sets of unique parts as judged by the jutting out. A would contain easy to pack parts that fit well within each other.

What this means? They will be trying to make more Cybertrucks.

The end goal in some years will be to produce millions of Cybertrucks.

Here is a growth chart I made up and has limited use:

StageVolume ProductionDate
11/monthNov 22, 2019
210/monthSept 30, 2021 (prediction)
Stages after Unveil Base 10

We are currently in stage 1. Excited to see entry into stage 2.

Stage 2:

The completion of stage 2 will allow us to say Tesla is making Cybertrucks at GigaTexas. This is a really big deal. It means Tesla has the tools necessary to put these vehicles together. But by no means significant volumen production.

To put it in a bit of perspective, the Model 3 VIN #6 was given to Kimbal Musk. I know this because he gave that car away on Omaze. These first few Cybertrucks are really a test bed to ensure you understand the assembly process at the manual level.

I am so oversimplifying this. If Tesla is at this step, it is because a tremendous amount of work has gone into getting the Gigafactory to this point as well as assembly planning being ready to go to the next step. It has taken over 600 days (616 and counting) to get to this step.

Let the ramp begin.

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I am long TSLA and TSLA options. I am not a financial advisor. Investing in anything comes with inherent risk. This is not financial advice.