June 15th, 2019

Apple valued TSLA at $240/share in 2013.
Shorts will try to negative spin this.  But you cannot argue numbers.  

  • In 2013, Tesla had made less than 35K cars.

So in 5 years (2008 to 2013) they made 35K cars.  That is 7K cars per year.  Now they make 7K cars/week.  With 52 weeks in the year, Tesla has production growth of 52x. But even if we don’t count the first 4 years and say that Tesla started out making 35K cars/year then it is still > 10x growth.
So $240/share in 2013 at 52x would be $12,480/share or $2400/share at 10x. 

Elon got in huge trouble for suggesting $420 would be a purchase price target that drives up the value of the stock. For saying this he/Tesla were fined $40M USD.

That was less than 2x Apple’s valuation in 2013 despite the massive 10x – 52x growth.   Not to mention the Gigafactories, companies acquired, super chargers built, research and development done that are all now assets on top of their crazy production increase. 

Google: gm advertising budget

GM’s advertising expenses last year totalled almost $4.5 billion.  
Divide by 4 and you still have over 1B per quarter.

TSLA lost $720M q1.  Of that, much of that money went into superchargers, Gigafactories, research  etc.  That is, investments in assets.  And on their worst quarter, they still lost less than what GM loses in advertising. 

One company is spending 1B to get demand.  The other company is spending 720M to grow to meet demand.

Based on current production increases since 2013, I would value Tesla at $12,480/share.

But, when factoring in all of Tesla’s assets and supreme tech, I think a more realistic valuation would be 10x that at $124,420/share.

Don’t forget to place your best accordingly.

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June 15th, 2019

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
I am TSLA Long. Model 3 Owner. Brother of a Model 3 owner. Son of a Model S owner and Tesla enthusiast. Tesla Referral Code